Population Update - March 2025 release

A quick snapshot of the recent Match 2025 National Population data release indicates that the moderation of Australia’s rate of population growth continues.

National trends

Australia’s population continued to expand solidly through the year to March 2025, reaching 27.54 million people, a twelve month increase of 423,000. While this is still rapid by historical standards, the pace has dropped compared to the year to March 2024 (+600,000 people). The March quarter alone saw an additional 144,000 residents, down from more than 157,000 in the same quarter a year earlier and from 194,000 in March quarter 2023.

This easing is evident across most states and territories. New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland remain the main contributors to national growth, but each of them added fewer people than in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Indeed, every state recorded a year-on-year decrease in population growth in March quarter 2025, with the exception of Northern Territory, whose rate of population growth expanded.

Net overseas migration by state

The single biggest shift between March 2024 and March 2025 has been in net overseas migration (NOM). By March 2025, inflows remained high but have clearly eased and now almost normalised to pre-COVID levels. However, departures remain lower, reflecting the lower arrivals through—and immediately after—the COVID period. For the March quarter, NOM added 110,000 people, down from 128,000 a year earlier. On an annual basis, NOM contributed 316,000 residents, compared with 494,000 the previous year.

The slowdown has occurred in every state, but the extent differs. In percentage terms, there were similar declines across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, with the largest absolute declines in New South Wales and Victoria. In relative terms, Western Australia and Tasmania fell by the greatest extent compared to the same quarter a year prior. In contrast, net overseas migration in both Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory both recorded year-on-year increased.

Although now easing, net overseas migration remains the primary engine of population growth. The migration story is now shifting back towards levels that, while still elevated by long-run standards, are more sustainable.

Net interstate migration

Interstate mobility continues to decrease. Interstate movers in March quarter 2025 were 7% down on the same quarter a year earlier. Outside of the COVID period, interstate movers are now at their lowest level since 2015.

Comparing March quarter 2025 with March quarter 2024, Queensland’s net gains, while still positive, were smaller than the bumper inflows of the prior year. Migration into Western Australia has also eased, but the state has better managed to maintain its interstate inflows, reflecting ongoing labour demand.

The declines in the traditional “sunbelt states” of Queensland and Western Australia were to the benefit of the remainder of Australia’s states and territories, which all recorded improvements in net interstate migration. In particular, NSW’s sizeable net outflows have noticeably dropped from a year ago, while it seems that Victoria has now reached a turning point, with its post-COVID net interstate migration outflows now having reverted to a net inflow.

Natural increase

The 78,300 registered births in the quarter were up by 9% in the same quarter a year prior, although numbers are often influenced by changes to the timing of registrations taking place in different states. Births in year to March 2025 (295,900) were up by 2% up the prior twelve months, suggesting some improvement to birth rates. Year to March 2025 births in most states were similar to the prior twelve month period. However, noticeable increases occurred in Victoria (+7%) and South Australia (+5%).

Meanwhile, the number of deaths in March quarter 2025, at 44,100, was largely on par with March quarter 2024. Deaths in the year to March 2025 were up by 2% in the prior year.

The growth in births took the natural increase to 107,400 in the year to March 2025, up from 105,400 the prior year, but well below the pre-COVID level of around 140,000 per annum. The natural increase is likely to remain stable at this level through 2025.

Implications for dwelling demand

Quantify Strategic Insights estimates that population growth to March 2025 translates to demand for around 195,000 new dwellings. While down from underlying demand of 227,000 dwellings the prior year, it is nevertheless 16,000 dwellings short of the 179,000 dwellings completed in the year to March 2025, further compounding the underlying deficiency of dwellings that has been building up through the post-COVID period.

For further insight into the implications of population growth nationally and across the states, contact Angie Zigomanis at [email protected] or Rob Burgess at [email protected]