Population Update

A quick snapshot of the recent December 2024 National Population data release indicates that Australia’s rate of population growth continues to moderate.

National trends

Australia’s population grew by 446,000 in calendar 2024, down from 634,000 in calendar 2023 as NOM was just coming off its peak.

Net overseas migration (NOM) fell to 68,000 in December quarter 2024, down by 32% on the same quarter in 2023. Total NOM for the calendar 2024 ended at 340,100, which was 36% below the 2023 level of 530,600. While there has been some increase in departures, they are still below pre-COVID levels, and it is lower arrivals that are contributing most to this reduction.

NOM has been moderating at a pace slightly faster than suggested by the monthly overseas arrivals and departures data published by the ABS. On these numbers, NOM is tracking to end FY2025 at around the 320,000 level projected by the Centre for Population in its Population Statement, which still remains well above pre-COVID levels.

Net overseas migration by state

Year-on-year declines occurred in all states and territories with the exception of TAS and ACT.

Net interstate migration

Interstate mobility continues to decrease. While the December quarter typically has the highest level of interstate movement, numbers are 2% down on the same quarter a year earlier. QLD and WA remain the only destination states, although their net inflows are easing in year-on-year terms, while the net outflows from the other states and territories have recorded a corresponding improvement. Rising prices in QLD and WA relative to NSW and VIC in particular are reducing their attractiveness.

Revisions to net interstate migration

Notably, the latest net interstate migration data incorporates revisions by the ABS to net interstate migration over September 2021-September 2024 inclusive. The revisions use additional data to supplement and help account for some of the limitations in the Medicare change of address data that is used to assess population movement. The ABS outlines the methodology changes here: Net interstate migration review | Australian Bureau of Statistics

In short, the revisions have shaved 26,096 persons from VIC’s aggregate net interstate migration estimate over September 2021-September 2024 inclusive, followed by 12,896 from QLD, while TAS also experienced a downward revision of 1,175. The biggest aggregate upward revisions were to NSW (+13,856) and WA (+12,155), with uplifts in the 4,000–5,000 range also occurring in SA, NT and ACT.

The revisions to net interstate migration will have implications for previously calculated assumptions of housing demand. In simple terms, at a rough average of 2.5 persons per household, the downward revision to VIC’s net interstate migration translates to demand for more than 10,000 fewer dwellings over a three year period. Meanwhile, the upward revisions to net interstate migration in NSW and WA translate to additional demand of approximately 5,500 and 4,900 dwellings respectively.

Natural Increase

The 67,600 registered births in the quarter up by 2% in the same quarter a year prior, although numbers are often influenced by changes to the timing of registrations taking place in different states. Births in calendar 2024 (292,400) were 3% up on 2023. Australia’s total fertility rate (births per female) was 1.49 in FY2024, down from 1.67 in FY2019. NT (1.60), QLD (1.52), TAS (1.51) and NSW (1.50) all had fertility rates above the national rate. Meanwhile, the number of deaths in December quarter 2024, at 44,500, were marginally (0.6%) up December quarter 2023.

A slight increase in both births and deaths saw the natural increase land at 105,200 in calendar 2024, up from 103,200 the prior year, but well below the pre-COVID level of around 140,000 per annum. The natural increase is likely to remain stable at this level through 2025.

Contact Quantify Strategic Insights

As well as revising past population growth, the revisions to net interstate migration will also have implications by changing the evidence base for the assumptions used in developing population projections, which in turn will have implications for expectations of population growth and future housing demand.

If you need updated population and housing demand forecasts, or just further insight into the implications of population growth nationally and across the states, contact Angie Zigomanis at [email protected] or Rob Burgess at [email protected]