The Australian Bureau of Statistics Births, Australia release reports 292,318 births registered in 2024, up 1.9% (5,320 more) from 2023. This modest rise follows several years of lower totals, though part of the increase reflects changes in registration processing times across states and territories (see here Births, Australia methodology, 2024 | Australian Bureau of Statistics).
Despite the uptick, the data confirm that Australia’s fertility landscape continues to show long-term decline and shifting age patterns.
Total Fertility Rate & National Trend
While births rose 1.9%, the population of women of child-bearing age grew slightly faster, by 2.1%. As a result, the total fertility rate (TFR) fell marginally from 1.499 to 1.481 births per woman in 2024. A decade earlier, it was 1.795, highlighting the steady downward trend.
The replacement rate, the level required to maintain population in the absence of migration, is about 2.1 births per woman. Australia has not reached this level since 2008, and before that, the early 1970s. Thus, even with more babies born in 2024, fertility behaviour remains at historically low levels.
Age-Specific Fertility: Shifting Age Patterns
The age profile of births continues to shift toward older mothers:
Women aged 30–34 recorded the highest fertility rate at 106.0 births per 1,000 women, up from 105.2 in 2023. Fertility among 35–39-year-olds also rose, from 65.5 to 66.6.
By contrast, fertility among younger women (15–29 year old cohorts) continued to decline, with sharper falls over 2023–2024.
Among older cohorts, fertility amongst 40–44-year-olds rose slightly to 15.5 births per 1,000, and 45–49-year-olds to 1.4, while teen fertility (15–19) fell to 6.0 per 1,000.
Overall, childbearing is increasing among women in their 30s and early 40s. The median age of mothers rose from 31.9 to 32.1 years, continuing a trend evident for more than two decades.
Completed Cohort Fertility Rate
The ABS also reports the completed cohort fertility rate—the average lifetime number of children women from a particular birth cohort have. This measure has been comparatively stable, edging down from 2.08 in 2014 to 2.03 in 2024, suggesting that women are delaying rather than dramatically reducing family size.
However, this measure can only be measured once women finish their reproductive years (defined by the ABS as 49 years old). The current rate reflects women born in 1975, who reached 49 in 2024. For a 20-year-old in 2025, her completed fertility will not be known until 2054, so it remains unclear whether today’s lower fertility rates reflect permanent decline or deferred childbearing.
State & Territory Differences in Fertility
TFR varies widely across jurisdictions and was also affected by registration timing differences:
In 2024, the Northern Territory recorded the highest TFR (1.62), followed by Victoria (1.52) and Queensland (1.51). The ACT had the lowest (1.27).
Northern Territory and Victoria saw small increases in TFR, although Victoria’s rise partly reflects delayed processing of the registration of 2023 births.
Conversely, Western Australia’s 2023 figures were boosted by the clearing of a backlog, while New South Wales experienced delays in processing registrations likely to understate 2024 births and overstate those in 2025.
Outlook
The long-term fall in the TFR from near-replacement levels in 2008 to under 1.5 today has been cushioned by growth in the number of women in childbearing ages. This has kept annual births just below 300,000, down from a peak of 315,000 in 2018. Births are expected to remain near this level, or rise modestly, as more women enter the high-fertility 30–34 age group.
Whether numbers increase will depend on whether fertility stabilises or continues to decline. Cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, and financial uncertainty appear to be delaying decisions to start or expand families. If these factors ease, some catch-up births should occur. But if delays become permanent, the fall may become entrenched as more couples choose smaller families or miss the window for childbearing altogether.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also contributed to recent declines. Border closures and negative net overseas migration in 2020–21 reduced the number of migrant women who had settled long enough to start families. Historically, overseas-born women have shown higher fertility in older age groups, meaning that as recent migration surges feed through, births could rise again in the medium term.
Cost of living and COVID-related impacts will continue to reverberate through Australia’s demographic profile. For more information on demographic change and its impact, please do not hesitate to contact either Angie Zigomanis at [email protected] or Rob Burgess at [email protected]
